National vaccination and economic transition planning

In 2021, the Australian Government developed plans to transition to economic re-opening once certain vaccination targets were reached. 

The vaccination targets proposed:

• once Australia reached a 70 per cent vaccination rate, strict lockdowns would be unlikely
• once Australia reached an 80 per cent vaccination rate, international travel would resume.

The plan aimed to reach those targets towards the end of 2021, however, if unsuccessful further restrictions may have extended into 2022.

National vaccination and economic transition plans

The National Cabinet agreed on a National Plan to Transition Australia’s COVID-19 Response (the Plan) from pre-vaccination settings to post vaccination settings. The National COVID Vaccine Campaign Plan, Operation COVID Shield, detailed the recommended steps for achieving the vaccination targets in the Plan.

The Plan set out four phases:

a) Current phase: vaccinate, prepare and pilot, with a continuing focus on strongly suppressing the virus, including through the use of early and strict short lockdowns

b) Post vaccination phase: focused on minimisation of serious illness, hospitalisation and fatality as a result of COVID-19 through a combination of vaccination and some ongoing degree of light social restrictions, with lockdowns deemed unlikely

c) Consolidation phase: public health management of COVID-19 consistent with other infections, but no lockdown requirement

d) Final phase: removal of all border restrictions.

Australia would move to Phase B when we reached a 70 per cent vaccination rate (two doses). We would move to Phase C when we reached 80 per cent (two doses). At the time, Prime Minister Scott Morrison stated that “when we hit 80 per cent, lockdowns should become a thing of the past”.

The Plan anticipated the normalising of COVID-19 management from 2022 and in its conclusion stated, “The Nation will be minimally disrupted by outbreaks, and we will be able to progressively reopen our borders and continue to revitalise our economy”.

Vaccination modelling

To define a target level of vaccine coverage for transition to Phase B, the government relied on modelling by the Doherty Institute. This modelling assessed the impact of different levels of community vaccination on the transmission of the Delta variant.

The modelling estimated completion dates for reaching 70 and 80 per cent vaccination coverage around November 2021. The precise timeframe was uncertain, due to factors including population acceptance, rate of delivery and demand, and possible emergence of new (more transmissible) variants.

Economic modelling

Treasury undertook an Economic Impact Analysis of the COVID management strategies modelled by the Doherty Institute.

Treasury’s main conclusions were:

1. It was significantly more cost effective to manage the COVID-19 Delta variant by maintaining a strategy to minimise cases, rather than allowing higher levels of community transmission.
2. Applying strict localised lockdowns – for shorter durations – was more cost effective than more moderate lockdowns for longer periods.
3. The direct economic costs of managing the virus declined sharply as the vaccine is rolled out, regardless of the strategy adopted.
4. Under a strategy to minimise cases, once vaccination rates reached 70 per cent, lockdowns were unlikely to be required, significantly reducing the economic cost of managing COVID-19.